37th Logistics Status Report: Forging Resilience Amid Disruption – The Permanent Volatility of Global Supply Chains and New Competitive Advantages

Permanent Volatility: From Cyclical Crises to Ongoing Disruption

When the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and Kearney jointly released the 37th Annual State of Logistics Report, the title "Forged in Disruption" already signaled the new normal for the industry. The report points out that geopolitical conflicts, frequent trade policy adjustments, energy price volatility, labor shortages, and rising operational costs are no longer temporary waves but the underlying currents shaping manufacturing and logistics for the next decade.

"Five-year plans are outdated; continuous adaptation is becoming the standard," the report's authors write. In 2025, U.S. trade policy changes occurred on average every 1.5 weeks, turning tariff complexity from an occasional variable into a permanent operating parameter. The threat facing companies has also shifted from "network debt"—inefficiencies from delayed redesign—to "network drift," where constant reactive adjustments gradually degrade supply chain performance.

Cost Structure: Logistics Share of GDP Hits New Low, but Pressure Remains

According to the report, total U.S. business logistics costs in 2026 reached $2.4 trillion, accounting for 7.8% of GDP. This is a decrease from $2.6 trillion (8.7%) in 2025, suggesting on the surface an improvement in efficiency. But with historical perspective: before trucking deregulation in 1979, logistics costs had accounted for about 19% of GDP. Decades of efficiency gains have not been linear; the current low share is the combined result of technology, scale, and globalization.

However, structural pressures persist: uneven global economic growth, inflation and public debt raising financing costs, accelerated restructuring of trade flows and geopolitics, labor and productivity bottlenecks, and ongoing energy price volatility—these five factors, the report argues, have no near-term solution.

Transportation Modes: Truck Supply Resets, Air Freight Volumes Hit Record

Trucking remains the engine of the U.S. freight economy. The report notes that approximately 89,000 carriers have exited the market since 2022, with the market rebalancing through supply-side clearance rather than demand recovery. As capacity tightened, pricing began to recover, but demand remains fragmented. Notably, the full truckload market is no longer a single market but has evolved into micro markets defined by specific lanes—each lane varies significantly in pricing, capacity, and service.

On the rail side, the proposed merger of Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific has become a focal point. If approved, it would create the first coast-to-coast single-line rail network in the United States. Supporters argue it would shorten transit times and promote modal shift from road to rail, but critics worry about competition and service levels. The report notes that Class I railroad revenues were flat, carload volumes increased slightly, while intermodal revenues declined despite growth in volume.Air cargo set a historic record in 2025 with a 3.4% increase in global demand. However, regional disparities were evident: the Asia-Europe route surged 10.3%, while the Asia-North America route declined 0.8%. Tariff-driven stockpiling boosted demand early in the year, followed by volatility from rising fuel costs, sustainable aviation fuel requirements, restrictions on Persian Gulf routes, and ongoing geopolitical disruptions. The report concludes that air cargo is shifting toward high-value-density goods, where speed and reliability take priority over transportation costs.

Ocean shipping capacity remains excessive, but disruptions (Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Panama Canal, Black Sea, etc.) continue to erode effective capacity, providing support for short-term freight rates. A wave of new vessel deliveries further deepens the supply-demand imbalance, leaving long-term structural issues unresolved.

Warehousing and 3PL: Skill Shortages and a Strategic Inflection Point

Warehousing employment remains stable at 1.8 to 1.9 million people, but the gap for high-skilled technical and management positions persists, with an annual turnover rate exceeding 40%. Accelerated investment in automation has become a coping strategy, but technological iteration takes time.

The third-party logistics (3PL) industry is experiencing a "strategic inflection point": customer expectations are shifting from transactional execution to end-to-end supply chain orchestration. Increasing regulatory complexity, tariff uncertainty, and changes in cross-border trade flows are prompting companies to seek partners capable of coordinating transportation, warehousing, data, and decision-making. Leading 3PLs are meeting new demands by expanding scale, increasing node density, and embedding real-time visibility tools and AI solutions.

Technology Leap: AI Moves from Experimentation to Tangible Value

The report argues that artificial intelligence has moved from the experimental stage to a phase of measurable commercial value. AI creates value through four capabilities: interpreting, predicting, recommending, and executing. However, adoption is uneven—there is a significant gap between organizations that embed AI into core workflows and those that remain in isolated pilots or have not yet used AI.

Under labor constraints, companies are improving productivity through automation and digital investment. Korhan Acar, a partner at Kearney and lead author of the report, noted: "Modern supply chains generate far more information than organizations can absorb. AI is helping supply chain professionals focus on the most important decisions, improve visibility, enhance forecasting, and intervene earlier when problems arise."

Strategic Focus: Resilience, Asset Productivity, and Continuous Adaptation

• The report proposes five strategic priorities for companies operating in a volatile environment:
• Design supply chains for resilience rather than mere efficiency
• Prioritize asset productivity over network expansion
• Strengthen end-to-end visibility and decision intelligence
• Accelerate returns on digital and automation investments
• Reassess capital allocation and investment cadence

"Profitable growth has become an explicit goal for many organizations," said Acar. "Leading companies will be those that combine resilience with digital productivity and forge a competitive advantage through continuous adaptation."

Conclusion: The Changing Nature of LogisticsThe key message conveyed by the 37th Annual State of Logistics Report is not an isolated trend, but a transformation in the operational logic of the entire industry: shifting from "cyclical optimization" to "continuous adaptation." For supply chain decision-makers, this means abandoning expectations of calm periods and embracing a new normal where equilibrium is constantly sought amid volatility. Those who fastest embed adaptability into their DNA and scale digitization from pilots to full implementations will gain a competitive edge in the next phase of global manufacturing and logistics.